Trend Set

Projecting trends

People often make mistakes when talking about fashion and trends. Trend is not the same as fashion. Fashion is the style of dress, behaviour, and way of living or other expression that is popular at present. Fashion can be made, trend cannot; trend can only be followed. Trend is like a weathercast. And the best we can do is to learn to observe it and make the most of it.

Trend is a projection of the direction of the society and the future. This projection can be based upon mathematical and statistical calculations and a mega-trend is a long-term projection of the social development. Designers need to be aware of them and to follow their development. In the opinion of my former tutor and design expert, Prof. Michael Hardt, we can get important indications out of four different domains.

First domain is the domain of issues: designers need to follow the news, read newspapers and analyze the topics discussed in the media and the agenda of the politics. Second is the domain of economy: designers need to follow the shifts in the economy. Which shares rise and which decline. Third domain is the domain of the artifacts: what is the concept behind the new products? Why people ask for these products? Is there a gap between the needs and the offer? And the fourth domain is the domain of the individual: designers need to be analyzing lifestyle concepts and be able to identify target groups. On his opening lecture at the Bergen National Academy of Arts (Kingdom of Norway) called Look Around You (2005), he stated the following: “The era of industrialized mass-consumption is on decline, a new mega-trend is approaching but the trend lines have not yet crossed. Experts expect this to happen within the next ten years. A change of mega-trend happens every fifty years, and we have the privilege to experience such a change and to be at the very beginning of a new trend”.

The industrialized society of the 20th century brought both a great deal of material affluence and a great deal of stress on the environment, the human minds and bodies. This has resulted in the rise of the consumers’ need for health, safety and comfort. Furthermore, the rapid advancements in global information and telecommunications triggered an additional change in how individuals see themselves and how they interact with others. The concern over the influence of the upcoming trends on design has always been the main topic of the International Design Competition in Osaka, which is regularly organized by the Japan Design Foundation. In 2004, the Out, In, With… competition was introduced. The theme Out was related to the trend about the increasing people’s need for better outdoor life. According to this particular trend, more and more people wanted to train their bodies and minds in a natural surrounding, in order to relieve stress.

However, when describing a style, the term trend in the fashion industry is used differently. When a style appears and quickly disappears, that is called a fad. If the style’s acceptance continues, then they call it a trend. And if it lasts, and gets a widespread acceptance, then it becomes a fashion. A Norwegian consulting agency called Bengal Consulting in 2004 did a research on radical tendencies, which they have called – The Six Super Trends. The first trend was called Internationalization. The key factors in this trend are: travel, socialization through the media and the Internet, and migration. In their opinion, travel will be a growing trend. People might travel more in connection with their work and free time. Travel will include more distant destinations towards more diversifying cultures. Young people in education spend longer periods abroad, either as exchange students or on discovery travels. Migration is increasing and will continue to do so. Certain groups of employees have a larger geographical work sphere than before. Both, national and international media deliver news from around the world instantly. All this conditions are affecting the level of our openness to other cultures. People who are fitting in this profile are called the multi-cultural customers.

The second trend is called the Learning Revolution. Key factors in this trend are the increasing length of time spent in education, media as an information carrier and learning institution, together with the tabloidisation of news. In western countries there are now problems finding manual workers. The information economy has increased the need for longer theoretical education. The media has contributed to life long learning. The amount of the information received today is huge. It has been calculated that the average Sunday edition of the New York Times contains more information than what has been received by someone living in the Middle Ages during their whole lifetime. People have become more capable of relating to information and using this information to make demands on those that can and do affect our environment. These people are called the critical and competent customers.

The third trend is called Connectionism. The key factor is the importance of being connected. The connectionists are a keystroke away from their friends or their network by various methods like e-mail, mobile phone, SMS, IRC, Facebook, MySpace and Skype. The ability to be in a place without actually being there is expanding the social sphere. Technology is seen as a creator of new possibilities. These people are the connected customers.

The forth trend is called Fragmentation. The key factors are specialization and niche orientation. Specialist magazines for every possible hobby and area of interest are continually emerging. Consumers often seek out the suppliers who appear to be specialists in some way or another. Since the number of suppliers has increased dramatically, the number one player in a given market or within a given product group, is often used as a model when comparing similar products. These groups of customers are called the specialist seeking customers.

The fifth trend is called Metropolisation. The key factor in this trend is the national distribution of the city culture. The cities are the key drivers in the positioning of products and services. It is now defined as positive to live in the city and a research had shown that those who live in the city are pretty content with their lives. People who belong in this group are called the urbanized customers.

The last trend is called Transmodernism. The key factors here are phase orientation and extreme mobility. Suppliers of products and services in the information society are continually developing, improving, and changing their products. The consumers understand this as an impression that everything resolves around phases of changes. With every product we expect that a new and better version will soon emerge. Many marketers are experiencing a weakening customer loyalty and this can be understood as curiosity or desire, on the part of the consumers to try new products. These consumers are called the change aware customers. Therefore, a dynamic brand might be better placed for the future, than the static brand.

Copyright by Gjoko Muratovski 2004 – 2006; Beyond Design; Nampress Publishing